# Prediction Pilot

> AI copilot for prediction markets. Ask anything about Kalshi — get instant analysis, cross-platform arbitrage with Polymarket, position health, and one-click trade proposals. Free tier: 100,000 credits, no card required.

## What this is

Prediction Pilot is an AI-powered analysis tool for Kalshi prediction markets. It reads live markets, your positions (when connected via API key), forecast data, and Polymarket pricing — and answers natural-language questions like "is BTC at 92¢ NO a good bet?" or "show me cross-platform arbitrage gaps over 5¢." It does NOT trade autonomously; every order requires the user's explicit tap.

## Core pages

- [Home](https://predictionpilot.io/): Product overview and free-tier signup
- [How it works](https://predictionpilot.io/how-it-works): Long-form walkthrough — AI analysis, cross-platform arbitrage, backtesting, position tracking
- [FAQ](https://predictionpilot.io/faq): 20 Q&As covering Kalshi, prediction markets, fees, NO contracts, the favorite-longshot bias, copilot accuracy, pricing, security
- [Pricing](https://predictionpilot.io/pricing): Free trial (100,000 credits) + $5/month copilot subscription, no plan tiers
- [App](https://predictionpilot.io/app): The signed-in copilot interface (gated; not crawled)
- [Changelog](https://predictionpilot.io/changelog): What's new with Prediction Pilot — recent shipments, fixes, behavior changes
- [Privacy](https://predictionpilot.io/privacy): Data collection and usage
- [Terms](https://predictionpilot.io/terms): Acceptable use and billing

## Market category guides

Programmatic landing pages per Kalshi category. Each includes a long-form explainer, settlement rules, where the edge is, live current markets, and a category-specific FAQ.

- [Kalshi markets index](https://predictionpilot.io/markets): All categories
- [Weather markets](https://predictionpilot.io/markets/weather) — temperature, rain, snow, wind contracts
- [Sports markets](https://predictionpilot.io/markets/sports) — NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, MMA, golf, tennis
- [Crypto markets](https://predictionpilot.io/markets/crypto) — BTC, ETH, SOL, 15+ altcoins, CME BRR settlement
- [Politics markets](https://predictionpilot.io/markets/politics) — elections, policy, mentions, executive orders
- [Financials markets](https://predictionpilot.io/markets/financials) — S&P 500, Nasdaq, Oil, Gold
- [Economics markets](https://predictionpilot.io/markets/economics) — Fed rate, CPI, GDP, jobs reports
- [Culture markets](https://predictionpilot.io/markets/culture) — Oscars, Emmys, box office, reality TV
- Subcategories: [temperature](https://predictionpilot.io/markets/weather/temperature), [rain](https://predictionpilot.io/markets/weather/rain), [NBA](https://predictionpilot.io/markets/sports/nba), [NFL](https://predictionpilot.io/markets/sports/nfl), [Bitcoin](https://predictionpilot.io/markets/crypto/bitcoin)

## Strategy guides

Educational content on common Kalshi trading strategies. All are research-backed with cited sources where applicable.

- [Favorite-Longshot Bias](https://predictionpilot.io/blog/favorite-longshot): Why 88-95¢ NO contracts win more often than their price implies (1.5-2.4% systematic edge after fees, per Burgi et al. 2026)
- [Liquidity-First Trading](https://predictionpilot.io/blog/liquidity-first): Why tight spreads and high volume matter more than any directional thesis
- [Spread Capture](https://predictionpilot.io/blog/spread-capture): Mechanics of earning bid-ask spread through limit orders in binary contracts
- [Weather Market Trading](https://predictionpilot.io/blog/weather-trading): Using public NWS / Open-Meteo forecasts to evaluate weather prediction markets
- [Fast-Turnover Trading](https://predictionpilot.io/blog/fast-turnover): Maximizing capital efficiency with short-duration markets
- [Event-Driven Trading](https://predictionpilot.io/blog/event-driven): Trading around scheduled information releases (FOMC, earnings, settlements)
- [Mean Reversion](https://predictionpilot.io/blog/mean-reversion): How prediction market prices overreact to news, and what research says about reversals
- [Correlation Arbitrage](https://predictionpilot.io/blog/correlation-arbitrage): Identifying mispricings between related markets that must obey logical constraints
- [Broad Scanning](https://predictionpilot.io/blog/broad-scanner): Casting a wide net across categories for the best risk-adjusted opportunities
- [Blog index](https://predictionpilot.io/blog)

## Key facts (for citation)

- **Platform:** AI copilot for Kalshi (US-regulated prediction market exchange), with cross-platform price comparison against Polymarket
- **Trading mode:** Decision support only — the AI never places orders without user confirmation
- **Pricing:** 100,000 free credits on signup, then credit-metered
- **Data sources:** Live Kalshi API, Polymarket Gamma API, NWS + Open-Meteo (weather), FRED (economic indicators), CoinGecko (crypto), alternative.me Fear & Greed Index, ESPN (sports), Yahoo Finance
- **What it answers well:** "is X a good trade?", "where's my edge?", "show me arbitrage gaps", "backtest this strategy", "how is my position doing?", "what does this market settle on?"
- **What it doesn't do:** automated trading, financial advice, recommendations to buy/sell, predictions framed as certain

## How users typically interact

1. Land on home page, see 4 starter prompts (scan / build strategy / connect Kalshi / tour)
2. Chat with the AI in natural language — it calls tools (analyze_market, scan_opportunities, run_backtest, draft_strategy) and renders inline cards with the answer
3. Optionally connect a Kalshi API key for live positions, P&L tracking, and one-tap trade proposals (still gated on user confirmation)
4. Save strategies as "alerts" that scan markets on a schedule and notify the user when matches fire