A practical guide to this Kalshi category — what the markets look like, how settlement works, where the edge actually is, and the resources for building a strategy. Live current markets and FAQ below.
Kalshi lists prediction markets on the major US economic data releases: Fed rate decisions (FOMC), CPI (inflation), GDP, monthly jobs reports (NFP), PCE, and unemployment rate. Each is a binary contract on the published value relative to a specific threshold.
Economic markets are one of the cleanest categories on Kalshi because settlement is unambiguous and on a publicly announced schedule. The BLS publishes CPI at 8:30 AM ET on a known date; the Fed announces at 2 PM ET on a known date. The market closes at the print time, settles on the print, no ambiguity.
Two reliable approaches: (1) pre-event vol selling — when consensus is tight (say, market priced 50/50 on a 25bp Fed cut), implied vol typically overprices the actual realized move by 20-40%. Selling the favorite side at 90¢ NO before the print works because most prints come in close to consensus. (2) Post-event fade — markets sometimes overreact in the first 5-10 minutes after a print. If the move was driven by a low-information data point (a 0.1% surprise on a noisy series), fading the move historically works.
What doesn't work systematically: directional bets pre-release. The data is unknown by definition; the market price reflects collective best estimate. Beating the consensus requires private information or a specific model edge.
| Market | NO ask | Spread | 24h vol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting? | 98¢ | 1¢ | $2,240 |
| Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting? | 48¢ | 1¢ | $1,793 |
| Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting? | 54¢ | 1¢ | $953 |
| Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their September 2026 meeting? | 100¢ | 99¢ | $759 |
| Will Kevin Warsh say Good Afternoon at his Jul 2026 press conference? | 100¢ | 99¢ | $589 |
| Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their September 2026 meeting? | 98¢ | 1¢ | $491 |
| Will Kevin Warsh say Family Fight / Family Feud at his Jul 2026 press conference? | 1¢ | 1¢ | $466 |
| Will Kevin Warsh say Trump at his Jul 2026 press conference? | 100¢ | 99¢ | $448 |
| Will Kevin Warsh say President at his Jul 2026 press conference? | 100¢ | 99¢ | $397 |
| Will Kevin Warsh say Good Day at his Jul 2026 press conference? | 1¢ | 1¢ | $387 |
| Will Kevin Warsh say Dissent at his Jul 2026 press conference? | 100¢ | 99¢ | $348 |
| Will Kevin Warsh say Balance Sheet at his Jul 2026 press conference? | 1¢ | 1¢ | $233 |
Each market closes at the official release time of the underlying data — 8:30 AM ET for BLS series (CPI, NFP), 2 PM ET for FOMC decisions, 8:30 AM ET for advance GDP. After close, no further trading; settlement happens within minutes of the official release.
On high-consensus Fed days (where the market is pricing 80%+ confidence on the outcome), implied volatility in the binary contracts has historically overpriced the realized move by 20-40%. Selling vol (taking the heavy-favorite NO side) into these events generates positive expected value, though tail events occasionally cause outsize losses.
Yes — Kalshi lists monthly markets on the nonfarm payrolls headline number. Most months settle close to consensus, which makes pre-release vol selling work. The exceptions (large miss/beat months) can move 30¢+ in seconds — sizing must reflect that.
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