A practical guide to this Kalshi category — what the markets look like, how settlement works, where the edge actually is, and the resources for building a strategy. Live current markets and FAQ below.
Kalshi lists prediction markets on US equity indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow), commodities (WTI Oil, Gold, Silver), and Treasury markets. Each is a binary contract on whether the underlying will close above (or below) a specific level at a specific time — usually the closing print on the official exchange.
Financial markets on Kalshi are essentially a translation layer over CME futures. The same information that drives the futures drives the Kalshi contract. The edge is rarely in the directional view — institutional desks with millions in dedicated capital have priced that already. The realistic edges are event-driven IV mispricing (selling vol into Fed days, earnings days, CPI releases) and cross-platform arbitrage when Polymarket diverges.
S&P 500 markets typically settle on the SPX close at 4 PM ET. Nasdaq markets settle on the NDX. Oil markets settle on the front-month WTI futures settlement price. Read the market language for the exact reference — small differences (SPX vs SPY, e.g.) can matter on a tight contract.
| Market | NO ask | Spread | 24h vol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will average **gas prices** be above $4.10? | 37¢ | 5¢ | $1,077 |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? | 100¢ | 99¢ | $947 |
| Will average **gas prices** be above $4.08? | 8¢ | 1¢ | $343 |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 33000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? | 85¢ | 1¢ | $261 |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 20500 and 20999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? | 100¢ | 99¢ | $260 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 83.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 30, 2026? | 30¢ | 1¢ | $244 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 83.49 USD/Bbl on Jul 30, 2026? | 26¢ | 1¢ | $222 |
| Will average **gas prices** be above $4.14? | 97¢ | 5¢ | $213 |
| Will average **gas prices** be above $4.16? | 100¢ | 99¢ | $195 |
| Will average **gas prices** be above $4.12? | 91¢ | 1¢ | $180 |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? | 20¢ | 1¢ | $175 |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? | 4¢ | 1¢ | $174 |
S&P 500 markets typically settle on the SPX close at 4 PM ET (not SPY, not ES futures). Always confirm the reference index in the specific market's settlement language — Kalshi has listed both SPX and SPY-referenced markets at different times.
Mathematically yes — but the friction of trading both ends up larger than the edge for most retail-sized positions. Cross-asset hedging makes more sense when you're trading $100k+ size and need to manage Greeks at the portfolio level.
Selling implied volatility into high-consensus event days (Fed decisions, CPI, jobs reports) — the realized move historically falls short of the implied move by 20-40% on these days when consensus is tight. Take the high-probability NO side and let the IV crush work.
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