A practical guide to this Kalshi category — what the markets look like, how settlement works, where the edge actually is, and the resources for building a strategy. Live current markets and FAQ below.
Kalshi lists prediction markets on US political events: presidential and Senate elections, House outcomes, gubernatorial races, executive orders, policy decisions, mentions in speeches, debates, and impeachment outcomes. As of 2024, Kalshi became the first CFTC-regulated venue to host federal election markets in the US.
Political markets are harder to trade systematically than weather or sports because information arrives in bursts that aren't on a schedule. A debate clip, a poll release, a court ruling — each can move a 60¢ contract by 10¢ in minutes. The edge in politics is rarely in directional bets and more often in liquidity provision around high-information events or in correlation arbitrage between related markets (Senate winner vs House winner in the same state, for example).
Election markets settle on the certified result reported by the relevant election authority (state Secretary of State for state-level, Federal Election Commission timeline for federal). Policy markets settle on the explicit event named in the market language — e.g., "Will the Fed cut rates at the December 2026 FOMC?" settles on the FOMC's official statement.
Mention markets ("Will Trump mention X in the State of the Union?") settle on a Kalshi-specified transcript source. Read the settlement language carefully — these can hinge on a single word.
Election outcome markets are well-followed and aggressively arbitraged against Polymarket, so cross-platform arbitrage at the price level (5¢+ gaps) is the most reliable trade. The next-most-common edge: mention markets where Kalshi's price doesn't reflect the structural likelihood — e.g., a "Will the president mention inflation in their next address" market trading at 35¢ when historical base rate is closer to 70%.
Avoid binary outcome markets close to a decision date unless you have a specific information edge — the bid-ask spread typically widens enough to eat any small edge you might have.
| Market | NO ask | Spread | 24h vol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Haley Stevens be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan? | 84¢ | 1¢ | $3,257 |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan? | 17¢ | 1¢ | $3,226 |
| Will Toby Doeden be the Republican nominee for Governor in South Dakota? | 100¢ | 99¢ | $2,407 |
| What will Donald Trump say during Remarks at General Motors in Milford, Michigan? | 100¢ | 99¢ | $1,944 |
| Will Trump say "Fox News" before Aug 1, 2026? | 31¢ | 1¢ | $1,820 |
| Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Governor in Florida? | 97¢ | 0¢ | $1,551 |
| Who will win Los Angeles Mayoral Election? | 63¢ | 1¢ | $1,360 |
| Will Larry Rhoden be the Republican nominee for Governor in South Dakota? | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1,075 |
| Who will win Los Angeles Mayoral Election? | 38¢ | 1¢ | $1,012 |
| What will Donald Trump say during Remarks at General Motors in Milford, Michigan? | 1¢ | 1¢ | $979 |
| Will Trump say "Windmill" before Aug 3, 2026? | 1¢ | 1¢ | $979 |
| What will Donald Trump say during Remarks at General Motors in Milford, Michigan? | 1¢ | 1¢ | $954 |
Kalshi became the first CFTC-regulated US venue to host federal election markets in 2024 after a court ruling against the CFTC's attempt to block them. State election markets followed. Political markets on Kalshi are legal for users 18+ in all 50 states.
PredictIt has historically been the US academic-style political prediction market (small position limits, transaction fees, run under a CFTC no-action letter). Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated DCM with higher position limits and competitive pricing. As of 2024-2026, Kalshi has rapidly become the deeper venue for political markets in the US.
Each mention market specifies the transcript source in its settlement language (typically the official White House transcript for presidential addresses, or congressional records for legislators). The market settles YES if the named entity uses the exact phrase or recognizable variants in the named source within the settlement window.
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