What counts as rain on Kalshi?
Measurable precipitation of at least 0.01 inches at the NWS station of record during the calendar day. Trace precipitation (less than 0.01") does not count as a YES event.
A practical guide to this Kalshi category — what the markets look like, how settlement works, where the edge actually is, and the resources for building a strategy. Live current markets and FAQ below.
Kalshi lists daily rain markets for major US cities — typically "will there be measurable precipitation today?" type contracts. Measurable means ≥0.01 inches at the NWS station of record.
Rain markets are lower-volume than temperature markets ($200-1,000 daily volume per market is typical) but offer a different statistical edge: NWS precipitation probability forecasts are typically more conservative than the actual climatological base rate — meaning a 30% PoP day historically rains ~28-33% of the time, while the market often prices it closer to 40% probability on the YES side.
Settlement is on cumulative measurable precipitation at the station for the calendar day. The "trace" measurement (less than 0.01") does NOT count as a rain event. This matters in shoulder-season cities where light morning drizzle that doesn't accumulate can be confused for a YES.
| Market | NO ask | Spread | 24h vol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will it rain in Chicago on Aug 12, 2026? | 97¢ | 6¢ | $341 |
| Will it rain in Atlanta on Aug 12, 2026? | 1¢ | 1¢ | $256 |
| Will it rain in Las Vegas on Aug 12, 2026? | 59¢ | 18¢ | $151 |
| Will it rain in New Orleans on Aug 12, 2026? | 65¢ | 3¢ | $125 |
| Will it rain in Miami on Aug 12, 2026? | 62¢ | 7¢ | $124 |
| Will it rain in Los Angeles on Aug 12, 2026? | 99¢ | 1¢ | $112 |
| Will it rain in Houston on Aug 12, 2026? | 97¢ | 5¢ | $86 |
| Will it rain in Denver on Aug 12, 2026? | 38¢ | 3¢ | $78 |
| Will it rain in Philadelphia on Aug 12, 2026? | 87¢ | 2¢ | $73 |
| Will it rain in Phoenix on Aug 12, 2026? | 58¢ | 4¢ | $71 |
| Will it rain in New York City on Aug 12, 2026? | 72¢ | 6¢ | $65 |
| Will it rain in Seattle on Aug 12, 2026? | 99¢ | 1¢ | $62 |
Measurable precipitation of at least 0.01 inches at the NWS station of record during the calendar day. Trace precipitation (less than 0.01") does not count as a YES event.
Modest. The most reliable approach is to identify markets where the NWS Probability of Precipitation (PoP) is well below the market-implied probability on the YES side, then take the NO at a favorite-band price. Edge is typically 1-2% per trade but volume is thin.
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