What counts as rain on Kalshi?
Measurable precipitation of at least 0.01 inches at the NWS station of record during the calendar day. Trace precipitation (less than 0.01") does not count as a YES event.
A practical guide to this Kalshi category — what the markets look like, how settlement works, where the edge actually is, and the resources for building a strategy. Live current markets and FAQ below.
Kalshi lists daily rain markets for major US cities — typically "will there be measurable precipitation today?" type contracts. Measurable means ≥0.01 inches at the NWS station of record.
Rain markets are lower-volume than temperature markets ($200-1,000 daily volume per market is typical) but offer a different statistical edge: NWS precipitation probability forecasts are typically more conservative than the actual climatological base rate — meaning a 30% PoP day historically rains ~28-33% of the time, while the market often prices it closer to 40% probability on the YES side.
Settlement is on cumulative measurable precipitation at the station for the calendar day. The "trace" measurement (less than 0.01") does NOT count as a rain event. This matters in shoulder-season cities where light morning drizzle that doesn't accumulate can be confused for a YES.
| Market | NO ask | Spread | 24h vol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will it rain in Houston on Oct 28, 2026? | 93¢ | 1¢ | $481 |
| Will it rain in Miami on Oct 28, 2026? | 66¢ | 2¢ | $376 |
| Will it rain in San Antonio on Oct 28, 2026? | 87¢ | 3¢ | $309 |
| Will it rain in Austin on Oct 28, 2026? | 83¢ | 3¢ | $275 |
| Will it rain in College Station on Oct 28, 2026? | 69¢ | 2¢ | $170 |
| Will it rain in Tampa on Oct 28, 2026? | 95¢ | 1¢ | $110 |
| Will it rain in West Palm Beach on Oct 28, 2026? | 1¢ | 1¢ | $100 |
| Will it rain in Seattle on Oct 28, 2026? | 1¢ | 1¢ | $97 |
| Will it rain in Chicago on Oct 28, 2026? | 99¢ | 1¢ | $82 |
| Will it rain in Ontario, California on Feb 27, 2027? | 74¢ | 1¢ | $62 |
| Will it rain in Milwaukee on Oct 28, 2026? | 89¢ | 2¢ | $62 |
| Will it rain in Dallas on Oct 28, 2026? | 99¢ | 2¢ | $61 |
Measurable precipitation of at least 0.01 inches at the NWS station of record during the calendar day. Trace precipitation (less than 0.01") does not count as a YES event.
Modest. The most reliable approach is to identify markets where the NWS Probability of Precipitation (PoP) is well below the market-implied probability on the YES side, then take the NO at a favorite-band price. Edge is typically 1-2% per trade but volume is thin.
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