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Kalshi temperature markets

A practical guide to this Kalshi category — what the markets look like, how settlement works, where the edge actually is, and the resources for building a strategy. Live current markets and FAQ below.

Temperature markets are the highest-volume sub-category within Kalshi weather. Daily high and daily low contracts are listed for ~30 major US cities, with thresholds set in 1-2°F bands around the forecast. Each market resolves to $1 if the temperature crosses the threshold, $0 if not.

Of all Kalshi market types, temperature markets are arguably the closest thing to a systematic edge that exists. The NWS forecast is the same data the market uses to price contracts, the favorite-longshot bias is well-documented across years of Kalshi data, and the settlement is unambiguous (the station's published reading).

Common temperature ticker series

• KXHIGH — daily high temperature (city-specific, e.g., KXHIGHNY, KXHIGHBOS, KXHIGHCHI)
• KXHIGHT — alternate daily high series
• KXLOW / KXLOWT — daily low temperature (note: morning minimum, NOT overnight low)
• KXTEMP — generic temperature threshold markets

The KXLOW vs KXHIGH distinction matters because the "morning low" is the lowest temperature observed during the calendar day at the station — which is usually the early-morning reading from the previous night's cooling. Some traders misread this as the overnight low (which would be a different value) and lose trades on the difference.

Standard strategy

Pull the Open-Meteo or NWS forecast for the city and date. Identify the bracket where the forecast is at least 2°F away from the threshold (the "cushion"). Enter NO on the side the forecast favors, at 88-95¢. Size half-Kelly. Take a small set of these per day across cities, accept the 88-92% win rate, let compounding work.

Resources

• Full weather trading guide
• All Kalshi weather markets