A practical guide to this Kalshi category — what the markets look like, how settlement works, where the edge actually is, and the resources for building a strategy. Live current markets and FAQ below.
Kalshi lists prediction markets across every major US sports league: NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, MMA, golf, soccer, tennis. Each market is a binary contract — Team A wins, or doesn't — priced between 1¢ and 99¢ to reflect implied probability.
Sports markets have the highest natural liquidity on Kalshi — single-game NBA winner markets routinely move $50,000+ in daily volume. The downside: information is widely available, prices update fast, and the favorite-longshot effect is narrower than in less-efficient categories. The edge in sports is operational, not informational — getting decent fills on the favorite side, avoiding the volatility around injury reports, sizing for the high win-rate / low-payoff asymmetry.
The most common ticker series: KXNBAGAME (NBA winner), KXNFLGAME (NFL winner), KXMLBGAME (MLB winner), KXNHLGAME (NHL winner). Each game has a single market resolving on the final score at game close — no half-time, no live betting on Kalshi. Settlement is unambiguous: whoever's on the scoreboard at the final wins.
Player props and parlay-style markets exist but have far lower volume and wider spreads — generally not worth trading unless you have a specific information edge.
Sports favorites (88-95¢ NO band, which equals the underdog at 5-12¢ YES) consistently underprice the favorite's actual win probability by 1-3 percentage points. Across NBA games specifically, the 90¢ NO contract has historically paid off ~92% of the time — three points better than the market price implies, which is roughly 1.8% per trade after fees.
The strategy: scan for NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL favorites at 88-95¢ NO with tight spreads (≤2¢), bet half-Kelly sized, take fills until volume runs out. Skip markets within 30 minutes of tip-off — injury reports drop in that window and prices move faster than your fills.
| Market | NO ask | Spread | 24h vol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game 4: San Antonio at New York Winner? | 54¢ | 1¢ | $19,605 |
| Game 4: San Antonio at New York Winner? | 47¢ | 1¢ | $13,294 |
| Will Rico Hoey win the RBC Canadian Open? | 99¢ | 0¢ | $6,515 |
| Mexico vs South Africa Winner? | 31¢ | 1¢ | $5,069 |
| Will Christiaan Bezuidenhout win the RBC Canadian Open? | 99¢ | 0¢ | $4,622 |
| Will Mackenzie Hughes win the RBC Canadian Open? | 100¢ | 99¢ | $4,538 |
| Will Ben Silverman win the RBC Canadian Open? | 100¢ | 99¢ | $4,114 |
| Will Nick Taylor win the RBC Canadian Open? | 98¢ | 0¢ | $3,806 |
| Will Wyndham Clark win the RBC Canadian Open? | 96¢ | 0¢ | $3,744 |
| Will Davis Thompson win the RBC Canadian Open? | 100¢ | 99¢ | $3,423 |
| Will Justin Gaethje win the Topuria vs Gaethje professional MMA fight scheduled for Jun 14, 2026? | 81¢ | 1¢ | $3,307 |
| Will Eric Cole win the RBC Canadian Open? | 99¢ | 1¢ | $3,223 |
NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, MMA, soccer, golf (PGA), tennis (ATP/WTA), college sports (NCAA), and several esports (CS2, Valorant, LoL, Dota). Each league has dedicated game-winner markets, with player props and parlay variants for selected major events.
No. Kalshi sports markets resolve on the final scoreboard at game close. There is no in-play trading — once the market closes (typically at game start), you can't modify your position.
The favorite-longshot bias shows up most reliably in the 88-95¢ NO band, where the underlying win rate is typically 1-3 percentage points higher than the price implies. After fees, that translates to 1.5-2.0% per trade. Edge is smaller than in weather because sports markets are more liquid + more closely followed.
Most player prop markets have $50-500 in daily volume and 5-10¢ spreads, which makes them functionally untradeable for systematic strategies. Stick to game-winner markets unless you have a specific information edge on a particular player.
Analyze any of these markets in one click. The AI reads live prices, your positions, and external signals — and answers in plain English.
Try Prediction Pilot — 100k free credits