A practical guide to this Kalshi category — what the markets look like, how settlement works, where the edge actually is, and the resources for building a strategy. Live current markets and FAQ below.
Kalshi lists prediction markets across every major US sports league: NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, MMA, golf, soccer, tennis. Each market is a binary contract — Team A wins, or doesn't — priced between 1¢ and 99¢ to reflect implied probability.
Sports markets have the highest natural liquidity on Kalshi — single-game NBA winner markets routinely move $50,000+ in daily volume. The downside: information is widely available, prices update fast, and the favorite-longshot effect is narrower than in less-efficient categories. The edge in sports is operational, not informational — getting decent fills on the favorite side, avoiding the volatility around injury reports, sizing for the high win-rate / low-payoff asymmetry.
The most common ticker series: KXNBAGAME (NBA winner), KXNFLGAME (NFL winner), KXMLBGAME (MLB winner), KXNHLGAME (NHL winner). Each game has a single market resolving on the final score at game close — no half-time, no live betting on Kalshi. Settlement is unambiguous: whoever's on the scoreboard at the final wins.
Player props and parlay-style markets exist but have far lower volume and wider spreads — generally not worth trading unless you have a specific information edge.
Sports favorites (88-95¢ NO band, which equals the underdog at 5-12¢ YES) consistently underprice the favorite's actual win probability by 1-3 percentage points. Across NBA games specifically, the 90¢ NO contract has historically paid off ~92% of the time — three points better than the market price implies, which is roughly 1.8% per trade after fees.
The strategy: scan for NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL favorites at 88-95¢ NO with tight spreads (≤2¢), bet half-Kelly sized, take fills until volume runs out. Skip markets within 30 minutes of tip-off — injury reports drop in that window and prices move faster than your fills.
| Market | NO ask | Spread | 24h vol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Matthew McCarty win the FedEx St. Jude Championship? | 100¢ | 99¢ | $10,048 |
| Will Tyler Bowers win the Bowers vs Vithoontien: M25 East Lansing Round of 32 match? | 7¢ | 1¢ | $6,941 |
| Will Daniel Elahi Galan win the Galan vs Gomez: Round Of 16 match? | 91¢ | 1¢ | $6,733 |
| Will Leo Vithoontien win the Bowers vs Vithoontien: M25 East Lansing Round of 32 match? | 94¢ | 1¢ | $6,531 |
| Will Federico Agustin Gomez win the Galan vs Gomez: Round Of 16 match? | 10¢ | 1¢ | $6,239 |
| Will Ryan Fox win the FedEx St. Jude Championship? | 99¢ | 0¢ | $6,028 |
| Will Russell Henley win the FedEx St. Jude Championship? | 98¢ | 0¢ | $5,821 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the FedEx St. Jude Championship? | 85¢ | 1¢ | $5,238 |
| Will Islam Makhachev win the Makhachev vs Garry professional MMA fight scheduled for Aug 15, 2026? | 25¢ | 1¢ | $4,178 |
| Will Noah Zamora win the McCabe vs Zamora: M25 East Lansing Round of 32 match? | 38¢ | 1¢ | $4,115 |
| Will Sabrina Dias win the Dias vs Kawano Cho: W15 Campos do Jordao Round of 32 match? | 1¢ | 1¢ | $4,072 |
| Will Sam Burns win the FedEx St. Jude Championship? | 96¢ | 0¢ | $3,936 |
NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, MMA, soccer, golf (PGA), tennis (ATP/WTA), college sports (NCAA), and several esports (CS2, Valorant, LoL, Dota). Each league has dedicated game-winner markets, with player props and parlay variants for selected major events.
No. Kalshi sports markets resolve on the final scoreboard at game close. There is no in-play trading — once the market closes (typically at game start), you can't modify your position.
The favorite-longshot bias shows up most reliably in the 88-95¢ NO band, where the underlying win rate is typically 1-3 percentage points higher than the price implies. After fees, that translates to 1.5-2.0% per trade. Edge is smaller than in weather because sports markets are more liquid + more closely followed.
Most player prop markets have $50-500 in daily volume and 5-10¢ spreads, which makes them functionally untradeable for systematic strategies. Stick to game-winner markets unless you have a specific information edge on a particular player.
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