What's the average spread on Kalshi NFL game-winner markets?
1-2¢ on Sunday 1 PM ET prime-time games. 3-5¢ on Monday/Thursday night games and international games (London, Munich). 5-10¢ on preseason markets, which generally aren't worth trading.
A practical guide to this Kalshi category — what the markets look like, how settlement works, where the edge actually is, and the resources for building a strategy. Live current markets and FAQ below.
Kalshi lists NFL game winner markets for every regular season game and playoff matchup. Tickers follow the KXNFLGAME-YYMMDDAAABBB format. Each market is a binary contract on which team wins at the final scoreboard.
NFL has a different volume rhythm than NBA — most weekly volume concentrates on Sunday morning ahead of the 1 PM ET games. Spreads are typically 1-2¢ on prime-time games and 3-5¢ on weekday or international games. Volume on a Sunday afternoon Eagles-Giants game can exceed $100,000.
The favorite-longshot bias in NFL is slightly larger than in NBA, possibly because the lower number of games per season (17 regular + playoffs vs 82 NBA) leaves more room for systematic mispricing. Favorites at 88-95¢ NO have historically returned 2.0-2.5% per trade after fees, though sample size by team is small.
The risk: NFL games have higher variance than NBA. A 70% favorite loses to a 30% underdog more often than the binomial would suggest because of the lower scoring (one bad bounce decides more games). Sizing must be smaller per trade than NBA — quarter-Kelly is reasonable.
| Market | NO ask | Spread | 24h vol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dallas win the Pro Football NFC Championship? | 93¢ | 1¢ | $121 |
| Will Jacksonville win the Pro Football AFC Championship? | 94¢ | 1¢ | $110 |
| Will Cleveland win the Pro Football AFC Championship? | 100¢ | 99¢ | $94 |
| Will Los Angeles R win the Pro Football NFC Championship? | 76¢ | 1¢ | $89 |
| Will Baltimore win the Pro Football AFC North Division? | 55¢ | 1¢ | $80 |
| Will Cincinnati win the Pro Football AFC Championship? | 92¢ | 1¢ | $74 |
| Will Cleveland win the Pro Football AFC North Division? | 95¢ | 1¢ | $70 |
| Will Detroit win the Pro Football NFC Championship? | 93¢ | 1¢ | $62 |
| Will Denver win the Pro Football AFC Championship? | 92¢ | 1¢ | $53 |
| Will Minnesota be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers? | 61¢ | 1¢ | $46 |
| Will Los Angeles C win the Pro Football AFC Championship? | 89¢ | 1¢ | $39 |
| Will Pittsburgh win the Pro Football AFC Championship? | 98¢ | 1¢ | $38 |
1-2¢ on Sunday 1 PM ET prime-time games. 3-5¢ on Monday/Thursday night games and international games (London, Munich). 5-10¢ on preseason markets, which generally aren't worth trading.
Playoff game-winner markets work the same way as regular season — binary contract on the final scoreboard. Series-style markets (Super Bowl winner) follow event-driven dynamics rather than favorite-longshot. The most reliable systematic trade is on individual playoff games, not on the season-level winner.
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