What's the average spread on Kalshi NFL game-winner markets?
1-2¢ on Sunday 1 PM ET prime-time games. 3-5¢ on Monday/Thursday night games and international games (London, Munich). 5-10¢ on preseason markets, which generally aren't worth trading.
A practical guide to this Kalshi category — what the markets look like, how settlement works, where the edge actually is, and the resources for building a strategy. Live current markets and FAQ below.
Kalshi lists NFL game winner markets for every regular season game and playoff matchup. Tickers follow the KXNFLGAME-YYMMDDAAABBB format. Each market is a binary contract on which team wins at the final scoreboard.
NFL has a different volume rhythm than NBA — most weekly volume concentrates on Sunday morning ahead of the 1 PM ET games. Spreads are typically 1-2¢ on prime-time games and 3-5¢ on weekday or international games. Volume on a Sunday afternoon Eagles-Giants game can exceed $100,000.
The favorite-longshot bias in NFL is slightly larger than in NBA, possibly because the lower number of games per season (17 regular + playoffs vs 82 NBA) leaves more room for systematic mispricing. Favorites at 88-95¢ NO have historically returned 2.0-2.5% per trade after fees, though sample size by team is small.
The risk: NFL games have higher variance than NBA. A 70% favorite loses to a 30% underdog more often than the binomial would suggest because of the lower scoring (one bad bounce decides more games). Sizing must be smaller per trade than NBA — quarter-Kelly is reasonable.
| Market | NO ask | Spread | 24h vol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Seattle win the Pro Football NFC Championship? | 88¢ | 1¢ | $2,408 |
| Will Detroit win the Pro Football NFC Championship? | 92¢ | 1¢ | $2,316 |
| Will the Jacksonville pro football team win at least 12 games this season? | 47¢ | 1¢ | $1,861 |
| 2026-27 Championship Game Matchup: Jacksonville vs Detroit | 100¢ | 99¢ | $1,414 |
| Will Minnesota be the last undefeated team in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? | 1¢ | 1¢ | $1,392 |
| 2026-27 Championship Game Matchup: Baltimore vs Detroit | 100¢ | 99¢ | $1,081 |
| 2026-27 Championship Game Matchup: Baltimore vs Dallas | 99¢ | 1¢ | $1,007 |
| 2026-27 Championship Game Matchup: New England vs Philadelphia | 99¢ | 1¢ | $866 |
| Will Kansas City be the last undefeated team in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? | 100¢ | 99¢ | $851 |
| 2026-27 Championship Game Matchup: Los Angeles C vs San Francisco | 99¢ | 1¢ | $736 |
| 2026-27 Championship Game Matchup: Baltimore vs Seattle | 98¢ | 1¢ | $647 |
| Will New York G be the last undefeated team in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? | 100¢ | 99¢ | $573 |
1-2¢ on Sunday 1 PM ET prime-time games. 3-5¢ on Monday/Thursday night games and international games (London, Munich). 5-10¢ on preseason markets, which generally aren't worth trading.
Playoff game-winner markets work the same way as regular season — binary contract on the final scoreboard. Series-style markets (Super Bowl winner) follow event-driven dynamics rather than favorite-longshot. The most reliable systematic trade is on individual playoff games, not on the season-level winner.
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